A map showing the extent of the subsidence over the magma intrusion in and around Grindavík. A GPS station (GRIC) located near the center of the subsidence has recorded a total subsidence of 25 cm since the beginning of the event.
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Updated 18 November at 15:00 UTC
Seismicity related to the magma intrusion that formed suddenly a week ago remains high and constant. Approximately 1,700 earthquakes have been recorded in the last 24 hours, 1.000 of those recorded since midnight. The largest earthquake during the last 24 hours had a magnitude of 2.8 and occurred near Hagafell, 3.5 km NNE of Grindavík.
Updated 17 November at 12:00 UTC
Seismicity related to the magma intrusion that formed suddenly a week ago remains high and constant, although the level of activity is substantially lower than 10 – 12 November 2023. Approximately 2,000 earthquakes have been recorded in the last 24 hours, with most activity in an area north of Hagafell, towards the Sundhnúkar craters. Most of the seismicity is micro-earthquake activity comprising earthquakes under M 1. The largest earthquake during the last 24 hours occurred at 06:35 near Hagefell; it had a magnitude of 3.0.
According to GPS measurements, ground deformation continues but at a decreasing rate. The latest geophysical models based on GPS data and satellite imagery indicate that the largest movements in the magma intrusion are occurring north of Grindavík, near Hagafell. If magma manages to reach the surface, Hagafell is thought to be a prime location for an eruption.
Subsidence over the magma intrusion remains active, although measurements show a slight slowdown from day to day. Presently, GPS stations located in and around Grindavík, near the center of the subsidence zone, show about 3–4 cm of subsidence per day.
Based on the interpretation of the latest data and model results, a volcanic eruption remains likely, with the highest likelihood of it starting north of Grindavík near Hagafell.
Updated 16 November at 17:50 UTC
Over the past few days, seismicity near the magma intrusion has remained relatively stable. As of 17:00 today, about 1,400 earthquakes have been recorded since midnight, the largest being 2.9 in magnitude, sourced near Hagafell just after 13:00. Most of the earthquakes were under magnitude 2, with the highest concentration of activity near Hagafell.
Deformation related to the magma intrusion continues to be measured, although it has slowed slightly since yesterday. The latest models, derived from GPS measurements and satellite data, still suggest that the largest movements of the magma intrusion are north of Grindavík near Hagafell. If magma manages to break through to the surface, it is most likely to happen in the region of Hagafell.
Eartly today, sulphur dioxide (SO2), a type of volcanic gas, was measured from a borehole at Svartsengi, located just north of Þorbjörn. The borehole extends eastward to considerable depth towards the Sundhnúkur crater row. The base of the borehole therefore reaches close to the location in the crust was the magma intrusion is located. Further gas measurements will be conducted tomorrow, 17 November. The detection of volcanic gas from such a borehole is another independent confirmation of the presence of magma north of Hagafell, as indicated by seismic activity and geophysical modelling results.
The likelihood of an eruption remains high. Monitoring continues for signs of shallowing seismicity and sudden crustal movements, which could be precursors to magma breaking its way to the surface. At the time of writing, no such signs had been observed.
Updated 15. November at 11:30 UTC
Since midnight, about 800 earthquakes have been measured, most of them in the middle of the magma dyke at Sundhnúk at a depth of about 3-5 km. Seismic activity has remained constant since Nov. 11. The main monitoring focus on seismic activity remains in the area of the dike and Grindavík.
Deformation measurements show continued deformation in the area. They are consistent with magma still flowing into the dyke. Part of the magma dyke seems to be solidifying, especially at the edges, but not at the magma inflow area, which is believed to be near Sundhnúk.
Measurements of sulfur dioxide (SO2) seem to show fluctuating degassing due to the magma dyke, but further measurements are needed for confirmation. Analysis of this data is currently underway in collaboration with Chalmers University in Sweden.
The fiber optic cable of HS Orka, which runs from Svartsengi west of Þorbjörn to Arfadalsvík, is being used as a continuous seismic measuring line with high sensitivity. This is a new technology that has developed in recent years and is now used as additional measurements in collaboration with HS Orku and ETH in Switzerland.
Overall, the situation seems to be unchanged since yesterday. The probability of an eruption is still considered high. In the event of an eruption, the most likely location is the magma dyke.
Updated 14. November at 12:40 UTC
Since midnight, 14 November, over 700 earthquakes have been located along the orientation of the magma intrusion, the largest of which was M 3.1 near to Hagafell. Last night, 13 November, stress-triggered seismicity occurred close to Kleifarvatn, with the largest earthquake registering M 3.8 at 21:09 UTC. Today, most earthquakes are occurring along the magma intrusion, with the majority being micro-earthquakes, commonly at focal depths of 3 to 5 km.
Deformation measurements, including high-resolution aerial observations, satellite radar imagery, and ground-based GPS observations reveal continued, ongoing ground movements due to the ongoing formation of the magma intrusion. These results are consistent with continued, albeit much lower magma inflow to the region of the intrusion.
Between 12 and 13 November, the inflow is estimated at 75 m3 / s, and the average depth to the top of the magma intrusion is thought to be around 800 m. The inflow and depth estimates are derived from model-based calculations, and they are subject to uncertainty.
Throughout this period of volcanic unrest, the focus has been continuous monitoring of seismicity and ground deformation in the Grindavík – Svartsengi region. To further our monitoring capabilities, we have installed additional GPS stations in and around Grindavík. The latest measurements from these stations show that the graben-like formation is still forming and mechanically active. Furthermore, to increase our ability to warn of an eruption, we have installed ground-based SO2 detectors that overlook Grindavík and south of Sundhnúkur.
In summary, the likelihood of an eruption remains high. If an eruption occurs, the most likely location will be on the magma intrusion. Our latest hazard assessment does not indicate any other potential eruption sites.
Updated 13. November at 16:20 UTC
Seismicity along the magma intrusion continues, although the size and intensity of the activity is decreasing. Since midnight today, 13 November, around 900 earthquakes have been detected. The seismic activity is concentrated on the region of the intrusion, between Sundhnúkur and Grindavík at a depth of about 2–5 km.
Decreasing rates of ground deformation are seen in GPS data from Grindavík. Satellite radar results show a graben-like formation that cuts through part of Grindavík. This feature was first identified by IMO in satellite radar imagery early on 12 November.
This ascending COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) interferogram covers the time period 3-11 November and shows an extensive deformation field related to the dike intrusion that began on the afternoon of the 10 November within the Reykjanes-Svartsengi volcanic system. This CSK interferogram and the previous (spanning 2-10 November) supported the difficult decision made by Civil Protection to evacuate the town of Grindavík late Friday evening. It also enabled modelling of the dimensions of the dike intrusion (on the 11 November), which provided a median dike length of 15 km and top depth of less than 1 km below the surface. The imagery shows over 1-m of ground displacement in the western part of Grindavík, caused by the propagation of the magma intrusion. From geodetical modelling results, we infer that (as of 12 November) the greatest area of magma upwelling is sourced close to Sundhnúkur, 3.5 km north-northeast of Grindavík.
New geodetic modeling is currently being undertaken, using an ICEYE interferogram and GNSS observations spanning the last 24-hours, to better assess the ongoing activity and provide an estimate of the current magma inflow rates.
According to our latest estimates, the volcanic hazard assessment in and around Grindavík is unchanged from 12 November. All monitoring systems are being monitored closely in real-time, especially near Grindavík, for any indications of sudden change. The natural hazards monitoring team at IMO is operating at maximum surveillance while the Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management coordinates short-term, temporary access to Grindavík today, 13 November.
Updated 12. November at 12:30 UTC
Since the morning of November 11th, seismic activity related to the magma intrusion remains fairly constant. Since midnight Nov. 12, around 1,000 earthquakes have been recorded within the dyke, and all of them have been below M3.0 in magnitude. The most seismic activity has been located in the region north of Grindavík. Most of the earthquakes are at a depth of 3-5 km corresponding to the lower part of the dyke intrusion.
GPS measurements covering the past 24 hours show that deformation associated with the dyke intrusion that formed on Friday, November 10th has slowed. This can be an indication that magma is moving closer to the surface, new models will be run as soon as new data comes in to update the model.
It was a joint assessment from the meeting, based on the latest data, that there is scope for temporary measures under the control of the Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management to collect necessities for the residents and attend to urgent errands in Grindavík and the surrounding area. During such operations, it is necessary to increase the vigilance of the area through additional monitoring with the aim of improving the detection of magma reaching the surface. It was the opinion of the scientists that it would be advisable to start these operations immediately, as uncertainty about the progress of the event grows as the day progresses. The final decision on whether these actions will be taken, and their implementation is in the hands of public safety and the Police Chief in Suðurnes.
In light of this joint assessment the Police Chief in Suðurnes decided to allow inhabitants to part of the restricted area in Þorkötlustaðahverfi and it is only to retrieve vital items, pets and livestock. This will be organized and controlled operation by the Police. This permission only applies to Þorkötlustaðahverfi. Note, the special operation is ongoing to pick up all horses in the area north of Austurver.
This news has been updated since the latest information from the Police Chief in Suðurnes.
Updated 11. November at 18:30 UTC
At 18:00 today, 11 November, a status meeting concluded between scientists at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, the University of Iceland, and the Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss the latest measurements of seismicity and ground deformation in the region of Grindavík, in addition to reviewing the latest geophysical models and hazard assessments. From combined assessments of satellite radar imagery, ground-based GPS measurements, and seismicity, it was concluded that the ongoing dike intrusion represents a serious volcanic hazard.
From geophysical models of the dike intrusion, it is estimated that the intrusion is propagating upwards slowly, with magma thought to be 800 m beneath the surface. The exact location of a possible eruption site is unknown, but the 15-km length and orientation of the dike gives a good indication of possible sources. The overall assessment from the status meeting was that the likelihood of a volcanic eruption is high, and that an eruption could be possible on a timescale of just days. Based on the extent of the dike, magma could emerge from its southern, just outside of Grindavik. Therefore, the likelihood of a submarine eruption has also increased, so preparations must be made for the possibility of explosive activity. A hazard area has been defined based on the location of the dike, as shown in the map.
Status map showing the location of the dike intrusion based on combined satellite radar imagery, GPS measurements, and geophysical modeling.
Updated 11. November at 12:00pm
Since midnight, around 800 earthquakes have been measured in the region where the magma intrusion is occurring. The earthquake activity has diminished slightly in the past hours, but it remains high. Most of the recent earthquakes have occurred close to Grindavík, where the southwest end of the magmatic dyke is estimated to be located.
Analysis of the earthquakes from today and yesterday is ongoing. The goal of this work is to better understand the evolution of the magma intrusion. Presently, the data indicates that the magma intrusion extends from Stóra-Skógsfell in the north to Grindavík in the south, where it extends beneath the sea. In accordance with the latest preliminary models, using the most recent satellite data acquired last night, the shallowest depth of the top of the magma intrusion north of Grindavík is 1.5 km. Joint interpretation of the ground and satellite measurements indicate that the size of the magma intrusion and the rate at which it is moving are several times larger than have been measured previously on the Reykjanes Peninsula. Our assessment is that an eruption, if it were to occur, will originate from the northern side of the magma intrusion. This means that there is a greater likelihood of an eruption beginning close to Sundhnjúkagígur.
Scientists are meeting regularly to interpret the data and update the latest models and hazard assessments. A meeting for journalists will be held at 12:00 at the Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management. The current conditions and future scenarios will be discussed.
The likelihood of a volcanic eruption occurring in the near future is deemed considerable.
Reviewed earthquakes since 9 p.m. last night.
Updated 10. November at 11:30pm
Significant changes have occurred in the seismic activity measured near Sundhnjúkagígar north of Grindavík and deformation observed in the Reykjanes Peninsula this afternoon. The seismic activity has moved south towards Grindavík. Based on how the seismic activity has evolved since 6 PM today, along with results from GPS measurements, there is a likelihood that a magma intrusion has extended beneath Grindavík. In light of this outcome, the police chief in Suðurnes, in cooperation with the Civil Protection Authorities, has decided to evacuate Grindavík. An emergency level of civil protection is now in effect. This is not an emergency evacuation. Residents of Grindavík are advised to proceed with caution.
At this stage, it is not possible to determine exactly whether and where magma might reach the surface. There are indications that a considerable amount of magma is moving in an area extending from Sundhnjúkagígum in the north towards Grindavík. The amount of magma involved is significantly more than what was observed in the largest magma intrusions associated with the eruptions at Fagradalsfjall. Further data is being collected to calculate models that provide a more accurate picture of the magma intrusion. It is currently not possible to say when this work will be completed.
Updated 10. November at 8pm
The seismic activity currently measured at Sundhnjúkagígar occurs within an area about 3 km northeast of Grindavík. The shallowest earthquakes measured now are at a depth of about 3-3.5 km.
The signs that can be seen now at Sundhnjúkagígar are similar to those seen on the eve of the first eruption at Fagradalsfjall in 2021 and are very similar to the seismic activity that was measured about a month before that eruption. The most likely scenario now, taking into account the activity that culminated in the onset of the March 19th 2021, is that it will take several days (rather than hours) for magma to reach the surface.
Earthquakes on the 10th of November (until 6:48 p.m.). The Icelandic Meteorological Office's seismic network is shown with triangles. Four seismic stations surrounding the current seismic activity have been showing a large increase in tremor since 3 p.m.
Updated 10. November at 6:30pm
The National Commissioner of the Icelandic Police, in consultation with the Police Commissioner of Suðurnes, has declared a Civil Protection Alert Phase due to the intense earthquake swarm that commenced 3pm today at Sundhnjúkagígar, north of Grindavík. There is the possibility for larger earthquakes than have been experienced thus far, and this sequence of events could lead to an eruption. The Civil Protection Alert Phase means that the risk is increasing, and measures are being taken to ensure the utmost safety of those who live/stay in the area. This is done by increasing precautions in the relevant area.
The Aviation Color Code has been elevated to orange (heightened unrest with increased likelihood of eruption). IMO is closely monitoring the situation. Residents are encouraged to follow the information provided on Almannavarnir.
Updated 10. November at 2pm
Earlier today, at 12:44, an earthquake of magnitude 4.1 occurred near Sýlingarfell, west of Sundhnjúkagígar. The craters are about 2-3 km northeast of Grindavík. A dense swarm of earthquakes began around 07:00 this morning in the same area, and nearly 800 quakes have been recorded since midnight, including 9 greater than magnitude 3. The depth of the earthquakes is about 5 km. Such earthquake swarms have previously been recorded in this area. It cannot be ruled out that the seismic activity near Sundhnjúkagígar is due to magma movements at depth.
Magma accumulation continues near Þorbjörn at the same depth and at a similar rate as before. It is accompanied by swarm-like seismic activity, as was noticed yesterday and this morning. While magma accumulation continues, ongoing seismic activity can be expected due to stress release in the area. Earthquakes up to magnitude M5.5 can be expected in such swarms, and the seismic activity may shift between areas. At this stage, there are no indications that magma is forcing its way to the surface.
Reviewed earthquakes since midnight.
Updated 9. November at 12:20 p.m.
Around 1400 earthquakes have been recorded in the last 24 hours. Seismic activity increased from midnight, and the SIL seismic network has detected seven earthquakes above M4.0 since then. The largest earthquake measured M4.8 at 12:46am. It was located west of Þorbjörn. It is the largest earthquake since the activity began on October 25th. Seven earthquakes M4.0 or larger in size were measured in the area from Eldvörp to the area east of Sýlingarfell. While the accumulation of magma continues, seismic activity can be expected on the Reykjavík Peninsula because the magma intrusion causes increased tension in the area.
According to GPS data at midnight, uplift continues in the area. The GPS data is being reviewed in relation to the seismic activity tonight. Since the beginning of the inflation until today, the uplift has been fairly even, although an acceleration of the process has been observed between days. The seismic activity last night and this morning is an example of this episodic seismic activity that can be expected while magma accumulation is in progress. The fact that there are now larger earthquakes than before in the area does not necessarily mean an increased rate of magma accumulation.
Reviewed earthquakes since midnight last night
Updated 8. November at 2:40pm
Approximately 1200 earthquakes have been measured in the last 24 hours, most of them in the area between Þorbjörn and Sýlingafell, similar to the day before. The largest earthquake was M3.4 at 12:31am last night, just south of Þorbjörn. The seismic activity continues at the same depth as before. It is likely that seismic activity will continue, and be episodic in intensity, while magma accumulation is ongoing.
Uplift continues at a similar rate as before according to Satellite and GNSS data. Interferogram (InSAR) for the period 28th of October – 6th of November showing near-vertical motion confirms this, but it also shows offsets due to fault movements associated with the seismic activity. Updated models based on the same data estimate that magma continues to accumulate in a horizontal sill at a depth of about 5 km and since the beginning of the inflation event (October 27th) the average inflow is estimated about 5 m3/s (uncertainty is ±2 m3/s)
Interferogram (InSAR) for the period 28th of October – 6th of November shows that deformation in that period is around 7 cm. SW of Mt. Þorbjörn is an offset in the deformation signal caused by fault movements by earthquakes.
Updated 7. November at 1:30pm
There have been around 900 earthquakes in the last 24 hours, most of them in the area between Þorbjörn and Sýlingafell. The largest earthquake was M2.9 and occurred around 7 am this morning. The seismic activity remains at the same depth as before.
According to satellite data processed around 5 pm yesterday and covers the period between November 4-6, confirms that uplift continues around Þorbjörn. The same data shows no signs of magma accumulation in Eldvörp or near Sýlingarfell, east of Svartsengi where seismic activity has been measued in recent days.
Magma accumulation continues at a depth of around 5 km in the are NW of Þorbjörn. If October 27th is considered the starting day of the inflation event until today, the rate of uplift has been fairly constant, although an acceleration of the process has been observed between days. It is likely that seismic activity will continue, and be episodic in intensity, while magma accumulation is ongoing.
Reviewed earthquake locations since 6th of November and today until noon.
Updated 6. November at 1:15pm
In the last 24 hours around 1300 earthquakes have been detected on the Reykjanes peninsula, of which three earthquakes were above M3. The largest earthquake was M3.6 this morning and located 3 km NE of Mt. Þorbjörn.
Deformation data shows that uplift continues in the area and there are indications on GNSS observations of an increase in inflation rates since 3rd of November. Since the start of the inflation, the uplift at the GNSS station at Mt. Þorbjörn has reached 7 cm. The deformation is caused by a sill-type intrusion at around 5 km depth. Modelling, based on data since 27th of October, indicates that the volume change associated with this inflation event has reached almost two times the volume change associated with the four previous inflation events in the same area between 2020-2022. Inflow of magma/magmatic fluids into the sill-type body is estimated at approximately 7 m3/s which is about four times greater than the highest inflow estimated during previous inflation events here.
While the inflation continues, increased seismicity in the area can be expected from additional stress changes induced within the crust.
Data from GNSS station at Mt. Þorbjörn. The graph at the bottom shows the uplift.
Updated 4. November at 11:30pm
After 17:30 yesterday, seismic activity decreased considerably. In the last 12 hours, about 900 earthquakes have been detected, all under M3.0. The activity after midnight as mainly been located at Sundhnjúkagígar - NE of Þorbjörn, as well as west of Eldvörp.
Seismicity has decreased considerably since yesterday, but the development of earthquake magnitudes, number of earthquakes and their location is comparable to the development previously seen related to magma accumulation in the vicinity of Þorbjörn.
The latest deformation data shows that uplift continues in the area. This uplift is thought to be due to magma accumulation NW of Þorbjörn at 4-5 km depth. While that magma accumulation continues, increased seismicity in the area can be expected from increased stresses in the crust. Rockfall can occur following large earthquakes, so caution should be taken by steep slopes.
The Icelandic Meteorological Office continues to monitor the area closely and to meet with the Civil protection agency to discuss the situation. Signs of magma coming towards the surface would appear as increased, shallower seismicity and rapid crustal deformation at the surface as well as volcanic tremor, which is a high rate of many small earthquakes. At the moment no clear signs can be seen of any of this, but the situation can change on short notice.
Earthquakes (circles) with magnitude over 1.5, from midnight on 3 November until 10:45 on the 4 November. The colour bar to the left shows the time of the earthquakes and the size of the circles represents the relative size of the events. Locations of seismic stations (triangles) and GPS deformation stations (squares) are also shown.
Updated 3. November at 3pm
An earthquake of magnitude 4.3 was detected at 1:14 pm, today between Þorbjörn and Sýlingarfell. Another earthquake of magnitude 3.5 was detected at 2:01 pm in Þorbjörn. These earthquakes are thought to be due to continuing stress in the crust from magma accumulation undir Þorbjörn mountain. No volcanic tremor has been detected and the area is still being closely monitored.
Updated 3. November at 1:50pm
According to measurements from 11:00 am today, the uplift centered northwest of Þorbjörn continues. The uplift is caused by a magma intrusion at a depth of about 4 km. Seismic activity continues on the Reykjanes peninsula due to crustal stress changes caused by the intrusion. An increase in earthquake activity was detected after midnight and into the morning. Since midnight, around 1.000 earthquakes have been recorded in the area, with two being above M3.0 and two above M4.0. The biggest earthquake of the current swarm was measured at 8:06 am and was 4.3 in size. The biggest earthquakes last night seem to line up in a north-south direction west of Þorbjörn. This is happening on previously known fissures, where tension has been accumulating associated with plate tectonics and may curl due to tension from intrusions.
There are currently no clear signs of magma moving closer to the surface. Signs that magma is making its way to the surface would appear in shallower seismic activity and increasing tremor, which is a high frequency of small earthquakes. At the same time, sudden deformation of the surface should be measured with GPS measurements. The development of this event is closely monitored, as the course of events can change with very little notice.
Model calculations show that the intrusion is located northwest of Þorbjörn, as shown in the accompanying image. The most recent seismic activity has been over the intrusion itself. The earthquakes measured at Eldvörp and east of Grindavík road are due to tension from the magma intrusion by Þorbjörn, rather than signs of magma movements in those areas.
Approximate center of magma intrusion according to model calculations based on GPS and satellite images together with seismic activity from November 2nd at 8pm to November 3rd at 12pm larger that M1.0 in size. The model assumes a box-shaped intrusion, but its length and width are subject to quite a bit of uncertainty. The model will be frequently updated with the newest data once aquired, and the size and shape of the intrusion might change considerably, so there is quite some uncertainty to the model.
Updated 2. November at 3pm
GPS data from the last 24 hours indicate that uplift continues at a similar rate in the area northwest of Mt. Þorbjörn. Earthquake activity has been quite stable, but yesterday around 800 earthquakes were recorded in the area around Þorbjörn, and the largest was M3.7 at 12:56 am. Since midnight today, around 400 earthquakes have been recorded in the area, the largest measuring M2.8 at 9:51 am. More detailed analysis of recent GPS data confirms that a magma intrusion is forming at a depth of 4-5 km under the area northwest of Þorbjörn.
It is important to note that seismic activity is will likely continue northwest of Þorbjörn, and earthquakes over M4.0 could be found in populated areas. Triggered seismic activity can also be expected in the coming days because the magma intrusion causes increased tension in the area. Rockfall can occur following strong earthquakes, so it is important to be cautious on steep slopes.
Reviewed earthquakes from midnight November 1st until noon November 2nd.
Updated 1. November at 12:20pm
On 25 October, an intense earthquake swarm began near Svartsengi, north of Grindavík on the Reykjanes Peninsula. So far, over 10,500 earthquakes have been detected in the swarm, with over 26 earthquakes exceeding magnitude three, the largest of which was magnitude 4.5 on 25 October at 08:18 UTC.
The latest satellite radar image, acquired late on 31 October, reveals 5 to 6 cm of ground movements over 12 days, centered just northwest of Mt. Þorbjörn. The same displacement signal is seen in continuous GPS measurements from stations in the region, beginning on 27 October. The latest GPS results from 1 November indicate that ground displacements continue in the region. Combining seismic, geodetic, and satellite-based observations, we infer that a volcanic intrusion is located at about 4 km depth just northwest of Mt. Þorbjörn. Presently, there are no indications that the volcanic intrusion is becoming shallower. We expect that seismicity will continue northwest of Mt. Þorbjörn, and this could include felt earthquakes exceeding magnitude four. Triggered earthquake activity is also possible in the coming days due to stress increases caused by the intrusion. This is a likely explanation for the ongoing seismic activity detected west of Þorbjörn in Eldvörp on 1 November. Triggered seismicity is also possible due to the long-term effects of magma accumulation beneath Fagradalsfjall.
Satellite-based InSAR image of the Reykjanes Peninsula, spanning 19 to 31 October. This image gives an insight into ground deformation during the last 12 days. The largest deformation signal is centred northwest of Mt. Þorbjörn. From GPS measurements, it is apparent that most of the centimetre-scale ground displacement occurred since 27 October.
Updated 31st of October at 5pm
This morning at 8:40 am an earthquake swarm began at Þorbjörn, which lasted for almost 2 hours and was exceptionally intense. The largest earthquake in the swarm measured M3.7. The center of the activity was just east of the centre of the uplift observed in recent days. The depth of the earthquakes was estimated between 5 and 1.5 km depth. The earthquake swarm is a clear sign of magma movements at depth. GPS measurements support the interpretation, although the uplift that started about four days ago has slowed down. Earlier today, there was a meeting with Civil Defense and stakeholders on the Reykjanes Peninsula, where the latest measurements and possible scenarios and responses to the current scenario were discussed.
IMO is monitoring closely developments and is looking to see if micro-seismic activity increases closer to the surface, which could be a sign that magma is breaking its way through the earth´s crust. Presently, there are no signs that earthquake activity is becoming shallower. However, the situation could change quickly, and it is not possible to exclude a scenario involving a lava-producing eruption in the area northwest of Þorbjörn. It is important to point out that magma movements, similar to that observed close to Þorbjörn, often fade away and do not lead to a volcanic eruption. Nevertheless, long-term rifting and increased (triggered) earthquake activity in the Svartsengi area could have created weaknesses in the crust, making it easier for magma to move to shallower depths.
Reviewed earthquakes from midnight today.
Updated 30th of October at 11:30am
The Sentinel satellite data expected to be received yesterday has not arrived yet, however the cGPS data in the area around Svartensgi and Þorbjörn show that the deformation is still ongoing. The deformation rate since the beginning of this intrusive event has been slightly decreasing over time. Preliminary deformation model results suggest the average depth, where the magmatic instrusion is occurring, is about 4 km.
Over the past 24 hours about 1300 earthquakes have been automatically detected on the Reykjanes Peninsula. Most of this seismicity is located at a depth between 2-4 km. The largest earthquake had a magnitude M2.7 on the 29 October at 11:40UTC.
Scientists from the Icelandic Meteorological Office are undertaking additional surface measurements in the area, including geochemical observations. Regular communication is maintained between IMO, HS-Orka and the Civil Protection while this unrest continues.
8-hours solution for the cGNSS THOB station in Þorbjörn showing the latest data point updated at 08:00 UTC today
Updated 29th of October at 2pm
The latest cGPS deformation data around the Þorbjörn and Svartengi area confirm that the deformation, which started 27 October, continues. As initially stated, the ongoing deformation rates are higher than in previous events which occurred in a similar area in 2020 and 2022. Overall, the seismicity north of Grindavík has been declining over the past 24 hours and there are no significant changes in earthquake depths. However, it is important to emphasise that the current deformation may trigger renewed seismicity in the area that could be felt by people.
New satellite data are expected to be delivered later today, and a new interferogram will be processed as soon as the data are available. The results will allow us to identify and interpret the deformation processes that have occurred on the peninsula over the past 12 days. We expected to publish the results tomorrow.
An episode of complex volcano-tectonic unrest is currently affecting the Reykjanes Peninsula. It is interpreted to result from multiple deformation sources at depth, which are interacting and affecting a wide area across the peninsula.
8-hours solution for the cGNSS THOB station in Þorbjörn showing the latest data point updated at 08:00 UTC today, October 29th.
Updated 28th of October at 1:30pm
The latest cGPS measurements, along with a newly acquired InSAR image over Reykjanes Peninsula, reveals a clear sign of ground uplift, centred around Svartsengi. This uplift signal began at some point on 27 October, and it reflects a pressure increase that is probably caused by a magmatic intrusion at depth. The centre of the uplift signal is around 1.5 km northwest of Þorbjörn, close to the Blue Lagoon. In 2020 and 2022, similar uplift signals were detected in the same area and with similar geometry. This is now the fifth inflation event in the area. From an initial assessment, the ongoing uplift signal is occurring more rapidly than before. Presently, there are no indications of magma moving at shallower depth. However, the situation may evolve rapidly. For instance, significant fracturing has occurred in the Svartsengi area due to triggered seismicity in recent days. Such fracturing could allow magma to find pathways to shallower depth.
Overall, the latest deformation results from the Reykjanes Peninsula show a complex, ongoing process of magma movements in the earth's crust. These processes are affecting a wide area, including Fagradalsfjall (where long-term inflation continues), east of Festarfjall (where the deformation seems to have stopped), and – in the last 24 hours – an area close to Svartsengi shows inflation.
The seismic swarm that began on 25 October north of Grindavík has resulted in over 7.000 earthquakes. The level of earthquake has reduced considerably, although the swarm is still ongoing, meaning that felt earthquakes are still likely.
Geophysical modelling is underway today to determine the depth and size of the uplift source close to Svartsengi. An additional satellite radar image will be available from Reykjanes Peninsula on 29 October. This image should provide an even closer insight into the recent magma movements and deformation pattens on the peninsula.
“Line-of-sight" (LOS) deformation measured by the ICEYE SAR satellite between the 26 October at 05:21 UTC and the 28 October at 05:21 UTC. Satellite data provided in collaboration with ICEYE (https://www.iceye.com/).
Updated 27th of October at 2pm
The ground-deformation signal detected since yesterday in the area East of Festarfjall is confirmed by the latest cGPS data. The horizontal displacement over the past few days is ~ 2 cm as seen at FEFC station and movement has now also been measured at another cGPS station located in Selatangar. A 1-day interferogram spanning 26 to 27 of October, does not reveal any significant changes in the area, but the signal at FEFC measured during this 24-hr period was smaller than 1 cm, likely too small to be detected by this interferogram. cGPS stations in Grindavík and north of here show no significant changes.
The seismic swarm north of Grindavík continues with around 1000 earthquakes since midnight. A total of 5800 eqs have been recorded since the beginning of the activity. An earthquakes M4.0 was measured at 04:02 UTC on 27 October around 2 km north of Grindavík. The seismic activity is interpreted as the response of the crust to the stress changes induced by continued magmatic inflow at depth beneath the Fagradalsfjall volcanic system.
Displacement at cGNSS station FEFC east of Festarfjall. Blue vertical line marks the onset of a dike intrusion in July 2023 and the red line the start an eruption near Litli-Hrútur 10th of July 2023. Most recent data points show up movement and horizontal movement towards SE.
cGNSS stations at Reykjanes Peninsula. Data from stations FEFC and STAN east of Festarfjall show movement in the last day.
Updated: 26th of October at 5pm
The seismic swarm that commenced on 24 October continues. Over 4,000 earthquakes have been recorded on the Reykjanes Peninsula, of which 14 had a magnitude exceeding M3. Most of the activity has occurred between Stóra-Skogafell and North-East of Eldvörp. Seismicity is located between 2 and 6 km depth, with the largest earthquake (M4.5) measured on 25 October at 08:18 UTC. Scientists at the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) interpret the ongoing seismic activity as triggered by stress induced by the ongoing deformation at Fagradalsfjall, which began soon after the summer 2023 eruption. The ongoing seismic swarm is expected to continue for the coming days. In the longer-term, the continued accumulation of magma beneath Fagradalsfjall could cause further seismic swarms on the peninsula.
Ground deformation measurements near Svartsengi and Grindavík show no changes related to the ongoing seismic swarm north of Grindavík. A single GPS station (FEFC), east of Festarfjall, is beginning to show localised movement in a south-east direction. These measurements could indicate the presence of magma at depth along the continuation of north-east – south-west-trending dyke intrusions, which have formed under Fagradalsfjall since 2021.
Staff from IMO continue to monitor the seismic unrest closely. In the coming days, satellite data will be used to better assess the spatial extent of any ground deformation. The measurements will also be used to better understand ongoing geophysical processes on the Reykjanes Peninsula.
Reviewed triggered earthquakes from October 20-26th.
Written 25th of October:
Last night an intense earthquake swarm started near Svartsengi, north of Grindavík. Over 1000 earthquakes have been detected there since midnight and the swarm is still ongoing. The largest earthquakes detected are M3.9 at 5:35 UTC and M4.5 at 8:18 UTC. Both of those earthquakes originated at around 5 km depth. Latest deformation data collected from several stations around the Þorbjörn/Grindavík area do not show significant changes correlated with the ongoing seismic activity. In light of the data currently available, this seismicity is interpreted to be likely triggered by the stress changes related to previous intrusive activity on the peninsula. There are currently no indications of magma migration beneath the Þorbjörn/Grindavík area, but the situation might change anytime, and it might evolve over a short time from hours to days. As reported in September a magmatic intrusion is currently ongoing beneath Fagradalsfjall.
Staff of IMO continues to monitor the area closely and interpret newest data as it becomes available.
Uncertainty level of Department of Civil Protection has been declared due to this seismic swarm.
8-hours solution for the cGNSS THOB station in Þorbjörn showing the latest data point updated at 08:00 UTC today.
Reviewed earthquake locations from midnight to noon on the 25th of October.
Automatic locations of earthquakes from midnight to noon on the 25th of October.
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